Nonparametric Bayes dynamic modeling of relational data

Symmetric binary matrices representing relations among entities are commonly collected in many areas. Our focus is on dynamically evolving binary relational matrices, with interest being in inference on the relationship structure and prediction. We propose a nonparametric Bayesian dynamic model, which reduces dimensionality in characterizing the binary matrix through a lower-dimensional latent space representation, with the latent coordinates evolving in continuous time via Gaussian processes. By using a logistic mapping function from the probability matrix space to the latent relational space, we obtain a flexible and computational tractable formulation. Employing P\`olya-Gamma data augmentation, an efficient Gibbs sampler is developed for posterior computation, with the dimension of the latent space automatically inferred. We provide some theoretical results on flexibility of the model, and illustrate performance via simulation experiments. We also consider an application to co-movements in world financial markets

Locally Adaptive Dynamic Networks

Our focus is on realistically modeling and forecasting dynamic networks of face-to-face contacts among individuals. Important aspects of such data that lead to problems with current methods include the tendency of the contacts to move between periods of slow and rapid changes, and the dynamic heterogeneity in the actors' connectivity behaviors. Motivated by this application, we develop a novel method for Locally Adaptive DYnamic (LADY) network inference. The proposed model relies on a dynamic latent space representation in which each actor's position evolves in time via stochastic differential equations. Using a state space representation for these stochastic processes and P\'olya-gamma data augmentation, we develop an efficient MCMC algorithm for posterior inference along with tractable procedures for online updating and forecasting of future networks. We evaluate performance in simulation studies, and consider an application to face-to-face contacts among individuals in a primary school

Bayesian dynamic financial networks with time-varying predictors

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric model including time-varying predictors in dynamic network inference. The model is applied to infer the dependence structure among financial markets during the global financial crisis, estimating effects of verbal and material cooperation efforts. We interestingly learn contagion effects, with increasing influence of verbal relations during the financial crisis and opposite results during the United States housing bubble

Rotor-Obstacle Aerodynamic Interaction in Hovering Flight: An Experimental Survey

Despite the presence of a fair number of numerical and experimental works on the rotor-obstacle interaction, a systematic study of the aerodynamic phenomena involved is lacking. In this paper a comprehensive experimental survey carried out at University of Glasgow is described, taking advantage of two different rotor rigs and several experimental techniques. Load measurements on the rotor were carried out in order to assess the rotor performance for different positions with respect to a cubic obstacle, thus simulating a set of possible hovering flight conditions around the obstacle. Laser Doppler Anemometry (LDA) measurements of the rotor inflow were used in order to investigate how the aerodynamic interaction affected the rotor performance. Eventually Stereoscopic Particle Image Velocimetry (SPIV) measurements in the region between the rotor and the obstacle were carried out in order to have a better insight of the interacting flow field

Convex mixture regression for quantitative risk assessment

There is wide interest in studying how the distribution of a continuous response changes with a predictor. We are motivated by environmental applications in which the predictor is the dose of an exposure and the response is a health outcome. A main focus in these studies is inference on dose levels associated with a given increase in risk relative to a baseline. In addressing this goal, popular methods either dichotomize the continuous response or focus on modeling changes with the dose in the expectation of the outcome. Such choices may lead to information loss and provide inaccurate inference on dose-response relationships. We instead propose a Bayesian convex mixture regression model that allows the entire distribution of the health outcome to be unknown and changing with the dose. To balance flexibility and parsimony, we rely on a mixture model for the density at the extreme doses, and express the conditional density at each intermediate dose via a convex combination of these extremal densities. This representation generalizes classical dose-response models for quantitative outcomes, and provides a more parsimonious, but still powerful, formulation compared to nonparametric methods, thereby improving interpretability and efficiency in inference on risk functions. A Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for posterior inference is developed, and the benefits of our methods are outlined in simulations, along with a study on the impact of dde exposure on gestational age

Doubly Robust Smoothing of Dynamical Processes via Outlier Sparsity Constraints

Coping with outliers contaminating dynamical processes is of major importance in various applications because mismatches from nominal models are not uncommon in practice. In this context, the present paper develops novel fixed-lag and fixed-interval smoothing algorithms that are robust to outliers simultaneously present in the measurements {\it and} in the state dynamics. Outliers are handled through auxiliary unknown variables that are jointly estimated along with the state based on the least-squares criterion that is regularized with the $\ell_1$-norm of the outliers in order to effect sparsity control. The resultant iterative estimators rely on coordinate descent and the alternating direction method of multipliers, are expressed in closed form per iteration, and are provably convergent. Additional attractive features of the novel doubly robust smoother include: i) ability to handle both types of outliers; ii) universality to unknown nominal noise and outlier distributions; iii) flexibility to encompass maximum a posteriori optimal estimators with reliable performance under nominal conditions; and iv) improved performance relative to competing alternatives at comparable complexity, as corroborated via simulated tests.Comment: Submitted to IEEE Trans. on Signal Processin

Locally adaptive factor processes for multivariate time series

In modeling multivariate time series, it is important to allow time-varying smoothness in the mean and covariance process. In particular, there may be certain time intervals exhibiting rapid changes and others in which changes are slow. If such time-varying smoothness is not accounted for, one can obtain misleading inferences and predictions, with over-smoothing across erratic time intervals and under-smoothing across times exhibiting slow variation. This can lead to mis-calibration of predictive intervals, which can be substantially too narrow or wide depending on the time. We propose a locally adaptive factor process for characterizing multivariate mean-covariance changes in continuous time, allowing locally varying smoothness in both the mean and covariance matrix. This process is constructed utilizing latent dictionary functions evolving in time through nested Gaussian processes and linearly related to the observed data with a sparse mapping. Using a differential equation representation, we bypass usual computational bottlenecks in obtaining MCMC and online algorithms for approximate Bayesian inference. The performance is assessed in simulations and illustrated in a financial application

Investigation of the rotor–obstacle aerodynamic interaction in hovering flight

In this paper, a comprehensive experimental survey of the aerodynamic interaction of a hovering rotor in the proximity of a ground obstacle is described, taking advantage of multiple experimental techniques. Load measurements on the rotor were carried out to assess the change in the rotor performance for different positions with respect to the cubic obstacle, thus simulating a set of possible hovering flight conditions around the obstacle. Laser Doppler anemometry measurements of the rotor inflow were used to investigate how the aerodynamic interaction affected the rotor performance. Stereoscopic particle image velocimetry measurements in the region between the rotor and the obstacle were carried out to gain a better insight of the interacting flow field. The investigation showed two main regions of interest. The first region is the one above the edge of the obstacle, where the rotor experiences a gradual ground effect as it is positioned over the obstacle. The second region, probably of more interest, is the one just beside the obstacle where a recirculation region between the rotor and the obstacle develops, causing both a significant reduction in the thrust augmentation experienced in unobstructed hover in ground effect and significant pitching and rolling moments, due to the nonsymmetrical inflow pattern on the rotor

Nonparametric Bayes Modeling of Populations of Networks

Replicated network data are increasingly available in many research fields. In connectomic applications, inter-connections among brain regions are collected for each patient under study, motivating statistical models which can flexibly characterize the probabilistic generative mechanism underlying these network-valued data. Available models for a single network are not designed specifically for inference on the entire probability mass function of a network-valued random variable and therefore lack flexibility in characterizing the distribution of relevant topological structures. We propose a flexible Bayesian nonparametric approach for modeling the population distribution of network-valued data. The joint distribution of the edges is defined via a mixture model which reduces dimensionality and efficiently incorporates network information within each mixture component by leveraging latent space representations. The formulation leads to an efficient Gibbs sampler and provides simple and coherent strategies for inference and goodness-of-fit assessments. We provide theoretical results on the flexibility of our model and illustrate improved performance --- compared to state-of-the-art models --- in simulations and application to human brain networks